Crude Over Climate: Departing Paris... Entering Venezuela

Post by Madeleine Herbert

Operation Absolute Resolve...

In January 2026, the US military raid named ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’ detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on several charges of drug, terrorism and weapon related offences. Delcy Rodriguez has since been sworn in as interim president, a change that appears aligned with President Trump’s objectives. Swift changes were made to Venezuelan legislation, enabling private and foreign investments in Venezuela’s oil industry.

The Need for Crude…

Motivations for such a takeover stem from US interest in Venezuelan crude reserves. The country possesses the largest known reserves of crude oil in the world (surpassing Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran). Despite holding over 300 billion barrels Venezuela exports just 1% of global output, largely a result of mismanagement, corruption and skilled labour shortages.

With the US being a top oil producer, Trump has stated his intention to rebuild the Venezuelan oil industry to maximise production whilst avoiding previous failures. In order for this redevelopment to occur, significant reconstruction efforts are required but these investments will not come easily. Venezuela’s nationalisation of the oil industry has left many US investors wary, with the US government stating they will not be subsidising any redevelopments.

Proposed Mechanisms of Control…

US control so far appears to focus on the distribution of proceeds, sales will be deposited in an offshore (Qatar) account and will be subject to oversight of the US Treasury. The Trump administration claims they will be instructing Venezuela what to do and not to do with the money, with a main focus on benefiting the people of Venezuela. Democrat critics are wary of this financial oversight, with concerns over Trump’s ability to provide benefits to oil companies allied to him. Further domestic concerns include questions of executive overstep and whether military and economic action should have been given Congressional consent.

Further international law concerns are also relevant. US control of Venezuelan oil and monetary proceeds challenge UN principles which allow for states to hold permanent sovereignty over their natural resources. The extent to which future control is exercised is bound to raise questions of whether the Venezuelan oversight is inconsistent with international law.

Dirty Extraction…

Restoring oil production to peak 1970s levels (3.7 million barrels per day) would significantly undermine already stalling global climate efforts. Concerns are particularly relevant to Venezuelan crude because it is carbon and methane intensive, warranting the name ‘dirty oil’. The production of these heavy crude oil reserves at an increased rate will cause extreme negative externalities on the environment, resulting emissions would rapidly increase greenhouse gas levels. John Sterman (climate and economics expert) has expressed that the Earth cannot afford these proposed negative externalities and quotes “if oil production goes up, climate change will get worse sooner, and everybody loses, including the people of Venezuela”.

Furthermore, increased drilling and supply carries the likelihood of lowered market prices, disincentivising changes to renewable sources of energy. Trump has referred to green energy as a ‘scam’ and makes clear he believes fossil fuels should carry continued reliance.

Notably, the US is no longer party to the Paris Agreement. In 2015, almost 200 countries signed the agreement pledging to avoid consequences of climate change. The agreement focuses on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and achieving net zero. The Trump Administration has now withdrawn from the agreement twice, returning under Biden but recently leaving again in January 2026. Despite Venezuela still being signed to the Paris Agreement, it is concerning the second largest emitter globally is no longer party to the obligations and demonstrates clear non compliance to the agreed terms, with intentions to increase drilling and therefore emissions in the future.

Going Forward…

There is no doubt the Trump Administration has acted boldly, and there appears to be a great lack of concern for negative environmental impacts which are certain to arise from increased crude production. The threat which arises from having the country with the largest crude reserves controlled by one of the largest producers is alarming. However, the extent and legality of this control remain unclear for now. Promisingly, redevelopment is bound to be a lengthy process. With Trump’s final term ending in 2029, the likelihood of proposals becoming reality is slim. It is also possible a new president will intend to rejoin the Paris Agreement, vowing environmental efforts by the time infrastructure rebuilds are completed.

Bibliography…

Steedman, E. (2026) Trump has mostly held his plans for Venezuela close to his chest

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Milman, O. (2025) US voters linking climate crisis to rising bills despite Trump’s ‘green

scam’ claims. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/dec/26/us-voters-link-climate-crisis-affordability

Moench, M. and BBC Verify (2026) Who’s in charge of Venezuela and what happens

next? BBC News. [online] 3 Jan. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmlz7r0zrxo

Noor, D. and Milman, O. (2026) Trump taking ‘drill, baby, drill’ plan to Venezuela ‘terrible’

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Venezuela Great Again’. BBC News. [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgnp8n40reo.

Poynting, M. (2015) What is the Paris climate agreement and why does 1.5C matter?

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